Good article via The Big Picture from Barrons

Good perspective on the jobs outlook in the US:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-more-you-dig-into-the-numbers-the-worse-they-get/

Great insight from Pimco's El-Erian

A great article in last weeks FT from the joint CIO of Pimco:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1551b95e-ac59-11de-a754-00144feabdc0.html

AUDUSD - Closes below .8700 for the third week in a row.

As can be seen in the (weekly) chart above AUDUSD has once again finished the week below the .8700 extension target. In doing so on Friday, it also attempted to break below the wedge support that I have highlighted. A break below this support will be bearish.

I appreciate that I am focusing on the one currency that has a central bank that is supposedly going to raise rates. However, what evidence have we had in the last few weeks that there is a case for rate rises? Ok, domestically the Aussie economy may be printing stats that are mildly bullish. If only Australia was able to exist in isolation that would be fine. As far as I am concerned stats coming out of other regions have been those that suggest a double dip, particularly Chicago PMI and NFP in theUS (including the 800K downward revision). Now if the the Anglo Saxon world is possibly going to experience a double dip recession what does that say for the demand for Chinese goods and then in turn for Aussie output (commodities)? No country can survive in isolation and there is no such thing as decoupling. I therefore think that there is a risk that even if the RBA raises rates that they will have to stop after one, and what the forward market is pricing in will be scaled back. The Aussie is a play on global growth and I don't see that being too rampant. For me the best risk reward is in a disappointment from the RBA, which may best be reflected via an options play. That is down to individual risk tolerance. Good luck.