USD Index hints at near term dollar weakness

The extension shown above appears to have exhausted itself. This combined with MACD divergence points to a sharp fall back to the 75.90- 80.00 region, before the possibility of a continued recovery in the USD index. This may also coincide with some strength in global equity markets, but that remains to be seen. A 25% apprcaitaion in the index since Mid July is quite a move. If this were to continue at the same rate going forward the US would price itself out of any hope of an export led recovery. To my mind this is one component of GDP that may enable the US to begin a recovery, but that would surely be made more sustainable if the USD were weaker not stronger. But more of that later.........