Thursday 29 January 2009

EURGBP - Potential lower high in place at .9520


Those of you who have been watching EURGBP will have noted it's failure to push substantially higher than the 61.8% retrace of the .9805 - .8833 fall and it's failure to close above that particular retrace level reaching .9520 on 26 January. The weakness since then has now fallen below the 61.8% retrace of the .8833 - .9520 rise! (Hope I haven't lost you). This increases the probability of a push through trendline support off .7806/.8844. A push under this trendline, which is this writer's favoured outcome, would target .8833/.8844 initially, then .8548/.8233 and in my best case scenario outcome, .7947 is possible (see the above chart for details). I give my fundamental reasoning for this trade in


and:


so apologies for the highly technical approach now. Click on the image for a larger and clearer picture. I have a GBPJPY idea brewing so perhaps more on that tomorrow. Good luck.

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