In a recent Bloomberg interview with RBNZ governor Bollard, he hinted at there being an expected further 50 basis points of easing in the pipeline. He also spoke about the Kiwi being sufficiently weak to make New Zealands exports competitive again, suggesting that it was commodity prices that needed to fall. This has weakened the technical picture following trade on Thursday/Friday last week.
I Have cut my AUDNZD position in half with a stop for half of the remainder under 1.2395 due to this level leading to a breach of the rising trend line since 1.0630. There are likely to be stops both above 1.2970 and below 1.2395. It is clear which one's are most in danger. I thus take the view that it is safer to buy the top if AUDNZD finds strength, rather then holding onto longs. In any case I feel that fundamentally the pair should continue to trade above the 200 day moving average, and that 1.3600 is much more likely than 1.0630.
If you managed to get long AUDNZD when it was first recommended on this blog you should have made a tidy profit. There will be more opportunties, and it could yet break higher, you just have to protect what you have in the bag to a degree, but stay in the game, albeit to a lesser degree. Good luck
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