Stock Markets - Some random thoughts

Consumer confidence stats that came out yesterday signify hope not confidence. Even if we have made a bottom it will need to be tested. When that does occur it is more likely to be a deep retrace, and the USD will probably strengthen. There is a high likelihood that S&P starts downgrading commercial mortgage backed secuities so a credit event may be associated with any such correction. (Not that we rate S&P, we just know that they move the market). So I'm simply advising readers to keep their eye's peeled and watch that USD Index, see http://you-buy-the-high-i-sell-the-low.blogspot.com/2009/05/nzdusd-is-it-really-that-good.html, (which is actually about the USD Index despite the title!). The USD may be offered now but when I hear rumours in the market, as I did today, that Geithner opposes a strong dollar, I sense that someone is trying to get filled. It turns out to be a false statement from Geithner.